Fa casi qüestió d’un any vaig llegir una noticia en un diari d’aquests gratuïts, ADN en aquest cas, on les declaracions d’una important científica feia referència a la manca de precisió en els models de predicció del clima. Es tractava de Evangelina Oriol, la cap de Missió dels satèl·lits Meteosat Segona Generació i MetOp de la Agència Espacial Europea (ESA).

Explicava en unes declaracions que pronosticar el temps atmosfèric a curt termini és prou fiable, però per contra a escala climàtica la cosa canvia.

“Prever el tiempo se puede hacer de una forma bastante ajustada para los próximos diez días”-explica, i continua dient-“No se tienen suficientes variables y no se sabe muy bien cómo hacerlo, por ello cuando se habla de previsiones del clima salen los resultados totalmente dispares”-referint-se a la predicció del clima.

Més endavant, l’entrevistada explica que fan falta més dades per tenir coneixement del que realment succeeix. I té raó, perquè per a comparar dades, fa falta tenir una bona base d’aquestes mesurades exactament en les mateixes condicions.  Aquestes característiques les compleixen les mesures per satèl·lit, homogènies, però el problema és que sols disposem de dades des de l’any 1979. L’IPCC per exemple utilitza les mesures en superfície, de diferents estacions meteorològiques del món. I açò introdueix molts errors, doncs les condicions de mesura varien molt d’uns llocs a d’altres. No ens ha fet falta anar-nos-en gens lluny per trobar un exemple de mesures com a mínim poc rigoroses, a l’estació oficial de AEMET Castelló-Almassora, com ja comentarem en l’article enllaçat. Casos així, molts arreu del planeta.

Evidentment aquestes declaracions no tingueren massa difusió. Sols les he pogut trobar a aquest diari gratuït. A mi em semblen unes declaracions molt coherents, fugint d’alarmismes i amb veritats per davant. Evidentment, aquestes paraules no són, en canvi, coherents amb el “Canvi Climàtic”, d’aquí que no interessi fer massa rebombori amb el tema. El consens pareix que ha arribat a la ciència.

Per llegir l’article complet, podeu fer-ho ací:

http://www.adn.es/tecnologia/cambio_climatico/20080326/NWS-0473-previsiones-climatico-elaborar-fiables-modelo.html

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